Hello, I'm Miko, the manager of Kokaiko Shoten!
I happened to be reading a book that is currently a bestseller on Amazon called "2030-2040: The Truth About Medical Care - The Future of Medical Care as Seen by the Director of a Downtown Hospital," and yesterday the author, Kumagai Yoshiyoshi, appeared on the YouTube show Pivot. I thought this was hot news and wanted to share it with everyone right away, so I decided to write a blog about it today.
Well then, let's get started!
- [Urgent warning] Japan's medical system will completely collapse by 2030
- What is the hellish situation of cities overflowing with elderly people with dementia?
- Dementia-related problems in neighborhoods are getting worse
- The hellish situation caused by the sudden increase in the population over 85
- A time when "no one will come to help" due to a sharp decline in the working population
- The serious reality of a single-person society: Single-person households have already exceeded 50% in Tokyo
- Rapid increase in lonely deaths: 87,000 people per year
- A shortage of medical personnel will lead to a society where "no one can be helped"
- The collapse of health systems around the world
- Why did this situation become so serious? Looking into the root causes
- The ray of hope of preventive medicine: choosing to prevent disease
- In the end, my conclusion
[Urgent warning] Japan's medical system will completely collapse by 2030
Today I want to share with you something extremely important that concerns our future.
A book titled "The Truth About Medical Care 2030-2040" written by Dr. Yoshiyoshi Kumagai, director of Keihin Hospital in Ota Ward, Tokyo, is currently a hot topic. This book is not just a prediction. It is an urgent warning based on data from a doctor on the front lines of the field.
There are only five years left until 2030. In this short time, the medical system we have taken for granted will completely cease to function - this is Dr. Kumagai's heartfelt appeal.
What is the hellish situation of cities overflowing with elderly people with dementia?
The situation that Dr. Kumagai envisions for Japan after 2030 is truly unimaginable.
"When they drive, they crash their cars into convenience stores, when they cook, they start fires, and in the middle of the night or before dawn, they play loud music and shout insults. There are probably some areas where people like that are the majority."
This is a warning based on the personal experiences of Dr. Kumagai, a dementia specialist.
Dementia-related problems in neighborhoods are getting worse
All of our social systems are designed on the assumption that people are able to make sound judgments. Self-checkouts, ticket vending machines, smartphones, IT systems -- all of these are designed for able-bodied people.
But what is the reality? Due to a labor shortage, the number of station staff and convenience store clerks has decreased dramatically, and the number of situations where people with dementia have to operate these systems by themselves is rapidly increasing.
Imagine this. Stores overflow with confused elderly people with dementia in front of self-checkouts, and train stations are paralyzed with people stranded in front of ticket machines. A society where someone goes missing every day in an apartment building, and elderly people who scream and cause trouble with their neighbors are an everyday occurrence.
The hellish situation caused by the sudden increase in the population over 85
Dr. Kumagai warns in the interview:
"When we talk about a hellish picture, one big thing that comes to mind is that the population over 85 years old will continue to rise up until 2030, and this will increase sharply. The proportion of elderly people will just keep on increasing. Moreover, there are regional disparities. Tokyo will continue to grow for another 15 to 20 years. But in some rural areas, the population, including the elderly, is already rapidly decreasing. So some places are experiencing depopulation, and others are experiencing aging. There are also places where both phenomena are occurring simultaneously."
In other words, while the number of people aged 85 and over will increase dramatically across Japan, an unprecedented complex crisis will emerge in which completely different problems will arise simultaneously in different regions.
A time when "no one will come to help" due to a sharp decline in the working population
Even more serious is the decline in the working population. Dr. Kumagai continues:
"This means that the working population is decreasing. With the number of workers decreasing rapidly, I wonder if workers will actually come into the medical and nursing care fields. Our jobs are low-paying, and are what is known as the 3K profession, and our medical fees are reduced every year, so we have to settle for low scores. When we reach an age where we can no longer say that medical care and nursing are callings, or that nurses are angels, will there really be young people who are willing to take these jobs for low wages? Probably not. If people thought about it more objectively, I don't think they would choose such a stupid job."
I was deeply shocked when I learned this reality. At the same time, I felt a renewed sense of our store's mission to support the health maintenance of health-conscious people through traditional Japanese wisdom and superior products.
The serious reality of a single-person society: Single-person households have already exceeded 50% in Tokyo
In fact, in 2019, Tokyo predicted that "the proportion of single-person households will exceed 50% for the first time in 2035." However, the rate of single-person households has progressed at a pace that far exceeds this prediction, and in the 2020 census, it has already reached 50.26%. This is a serious situation that exceeds expectations, with the rate exceeding 50% 15 years earlier than predicted . In Tokyo, the prefecture with the highest unmarried rate for the population aged 15 and over is Tokyo, at 37.9% for both men and 29.9%, respectively. In other words, about 40% of men and about 30% of women in Tokyo are unmarried. In addition, in Tokyo, one in three men and one in four women have never been married, and a serious trend toward unmarried people is progressing.
In other words, more than half of the people currently living in Tokyo live alone , and with a sharp increase in young people who are unable to marry or have children, a future awaits them, in which they will ultimately die alone without access to adequate medical care or nursing care.
As Dr. Kumagai warns, the number of single-person households will continue to rise in the future. When they get older, while they are still healthy, it's not a problem, but when they become bedridden or suffer from dementia, who will take care of them? The answer is "no one." A delivery person notices a strange smell and the police investigate - apartment managers in the future will have a hard time and will likely refuse to let single elderly people into their homes.
Furthermore, Kumagai says that the number of dementia patients becoming estranged from their families and becoming completely estranged is increasing day by day. "In the case of Pick's dementia, the patient looks exactly like a normal person, but they say strange things, so even the children are unable to understand their parents, and in many cases they become estranged." Moreover, "caring for their parents can make it difficult for them to maintain their own lifestyle, and it can also be mentally exhausting." For these reasons, even if a family member is registered, children may not take the responsibility of caring seriously.
Rapid increase in lonely deaths: 87,000 people per year
In 2024, 76,020 people died at home living alone, of which 76.4%, or 58,044, were elderly people aged 65 or older. The most common cause of lonely deaths was illness, accounting for about 70%, followed by suicide, accounting for about 10%.
The suicide rate among the younger generation is particularly serious, accounting for approximately 40% of deaths among women in their 20s. The average number of days until a person's death is discovered is 18 days, and it is no longer uncommon for people to die at home two or three days ago, or for no one to know when.
A shortage of medical personnel will lead to a society where "no one can be helped"
I apologize for stirring up so much fear, but what is even more serious is the sharp decline in the number of medical professionals who support these people, which is a major problem.
Currently, a phenomenon known as the "Chokubi phenomenon" is occurring among young doctors. This is an industry term used among medical professionals, and it refers to the phenomenon in which, after graduating from medical school and completing residency, doctors move directly into cosmetic surgery rather than into life-saving fields such as cardiac surgery or neurosurgery .
Why? The answer is clear.
Cardiac surgeons and brain surgeons do not work in private hospitals, but mostly work in university hospitals, and their salaries are surprisingly low. Moreover, it is a short-lived profession with very few doctors holding a scalpel after the age of 65, so there is the question of how they will live for the next 20 years or more after they no longer have a scalpel. On the other hand, cosmetic surgeons have high salaries and free time. Of course, when you consider the price of devoting yourself to others even at the expense of your body, your health, and your lifespan, it's a pretty common story.
So, Director Kumagai says, Japan will be in a difficult situation after the current surgeons retire.
As a result, it has become common to have to wait six months for cancer surgery. We are fast approaching a future where the disease will progress while people wait, and it will soon be too late for many patients to receive treatment.
In fact, I was recently surprised by a new trend in ultra-luxury tower apartments in Tokyo: Toranomon Hills has partnered with St. Luke's University School of Medicine's Center for Preventive Medicine to provide 24-hour medical consultations.
Azabudai Hills, which I visited the other day, is home to the Keio University Hospital's Preventive Medicine Center.
For some ultra-wealthy people, an era has already begun in which seamless connectivity to advanced medical care is a deciding factor when choosing a home and a status symbol .
From now on, a referral letter from a local doctor will be nothing more than a piece of paper used to avoid responsibility and no longer a guarantee of priority.
The collapse of health systems around the world
This problem is unique to Japan: similar collapses of medical care are occurring in developed countries around the world.
In the UK , it is common to wait six months for cancer surgery. Ambulances don't arrive for eight hours. The utopia of "free medical care" has now become a death queue.
The same goes for "free medical care" in Canada . You have to wait four months for an MRI, six months to see a specialist, and a year for surgery. This has resulted in the ironic situation of Canadians having to travel to the US for treatment at their own expense.
Hundreds of thousands of people are waiting in care homes in Germany .
In France , doctors are disappearing from rural areas, resulting in a worsening medical desert.
This is the reality of what is happening in "developed countries".
Why did this situation become so serious? Looking into the root causes
The answer is clear: for too long, we have believed that getting sick is our right, that our children and society will take care of us, that medical care will cure us.
Hospitals have become "treatment factories" and doctors have become "repairmen." They have been so focused on fixing broken bodies that they have not given any thought to preventing them from breaking down (the concept of prevention) .
In the medical field, there is a continuing battle of the wrists with dementia patients for whom there is no cure. The patients are not cooperative, there is no hope of recovery, and if they are not watched over 24/7, it is impossible to know what they will do. "I am doing my best, but I am ridiculed or hit..." This is a reality that breaks the hearts of medical staff.
And sadly, once the victim's spirit is broken, they are forced to resort to abusive measures such as restraints and drugging, creating a vicious cycle that continues unabated.
There are many other painful stories written after this. The reality of nursing care, declining birthrates, lonely deaths, life expectancy.... It is written based on data from every angle, and it really hits home that these stories are real problems, so I would like you to read this book, "2030-2040 The Truth about Medical Care: The Future of Medical Care as Seen by the Director of a Downtown Hospital"!
The ray of hope of preventive medicine: choosing to prevent disease
But there is hope: many illnesses are actually the result of choices.
Scientific studies show:
- 25% of dementia cases could be prevented by simply cutting out ultra-processed foods
- 80% of heart disease can be prevented with a proper diet
- 90% of type 2 diabetes cases can be prevented through lifestyle changes
- 40-50% of cancers can be prevented through diet and lifestyle changes
In other words, what you eat today, what you eat tomorrow, whether you exercise or not, whether you sleep well or not - these are the daily choices that will determine who you will be 10 or 20 years from now.
In particular, they say that dementia began 30 years ago.
In the end, my conclusion
My health is not just my own.
If you develop diabetes, you will incur medical expenses of 500,000 to 1 million yen per year. Who will pay for this? The taxes and insurance premiums of the younger generation.
If you become dependent on care, who will look after you 24 hours a day? Won't that take away the life and mental strength of your family and those around you?
Especially for someone like me who doesn't have children, when my husband passes away and I'm left alone, will money be the solution? Or... (Sorry for having to leave you first 🙇♀️)
Staying healthy is not only a responsibility to yourself, but also to society .
We are now at a historic turning point. The era in which we could simply get cured if we got sick is coming to an end.
From now on, it will be an era of "managing yourself to avoid getting sick."
To achieve this, I need to eat well, exercise, sleep well, and have regular bowel movements! I never do anything I don't want to do! (Stress-free) lol
And that choice is in your hands , not anyone else's.
And finally: How would you like to end your life?
Do you want to be a burden on society or a strong support for it?
The answer lies in what you do today.
Small changes you can make today will make a big difference five or ten years from now. Choosing high-quality ingredients, avoiding additives, incorporating fermented foods, exercising moderately, and reducing stress -- these are the everyday choices you make that will change your future and change society.
We at Kokaiko Shoten are committed to supporting your healthy future. We deliver health methods proven by traditional Japanese wisdom and modern science through carefully selected, 100% Japanese-made products.
Your health saves the world.
Why not take these words to heart and start a new life today?
The future depends on our choices. Let's work together to build a healthy and beautiful life!
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